AGP Executive Report

Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. Trade Representative proposed new Section 301 tariffs tied to forced-labor import rules, with rates of 10% or 12.5% across 60 economies (including Ecuador), plus product exceptions and a July 6 comment deadline. Ecuador Macro & Finance: Ecuador’s country risk fell to 396 points on June 3, slipping under the 400 mark for the first time in nearly 12 years as borrowing sentiment improves. Energy & Industry: Petroecuador restarted diesel production at the Esmeraldas refinery, lifting output to about 83% of capacity after a March fire rehabilitation. Security & Justice: Ecuador’s Villavicencio assassination probe expanded with phone records and seized devices, alleging witness pressure and political contacts tied to the case. Business Diplomacy: AMCHAMDR joined Ecuador-hosted BFA 2026 talks on trade, investment, supply-chain resilience, energy security, and digital transformation. Sustainability: Premios Verdes released its 2026 ranking of 500 socio-environmental projects, with Ecuador among the top contributors ahead of a global event in Cuenca. Tech & Research: A humanoid robot reached Chimborazo’s summit, signaling progress toward using legged robots in remote, high-risk environments.

Ecuador Business & Economy: A newly uncovered Pentagon-backed AI propaganda operation (“La Tilde”) is reportedly preparing tailored pro-U.S. messaging versions for Ecuador and other Latin American countries, raising fresh concerns for misinformation and political interference. Finance & Inclusion: A U.S. case study highlights how community lenders and banks can help minority-owned firms grow through loans plus coaching and financial literacy support. AI Governance: An IBM study finds CIOs/CTOs are increasingly held accountable for AI systems they don’t fully control, while governance lags behind faster enterprise deployment. Trade & Energy: U.S. imports of Iraqi crude resumed at about 43,000 bpd after a prior halt, with Ecuador listed among major suppliers to the U.S. Tourism & Climate: New forecasts warn a potentially strong El Niño could intensify extreme weather, with knock-on risks for agriculture and food supply chains. Regional Business Context: Latin America’s travel and tourism outlook is projected to outperform global growth, supported by a “safer haven” effect in parts of the region.

Ecuador in the World Cup spotlight: Ecuador’s group-stage match vs Germany is set for June 25 at New York/New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium, with the tournament also bringing Ecuador vs Ivory Coast in Philadelphia (June 14) and Curacao vs Ivory Coast (June 25), underscoring how the World Cup is turning Ecuadorian sports into a regional business draw. Tourism momentum for Latin America: A WTTC outlook says Central and South America’s travel and tourism output could rise faster than the global average by 2026, with overseas spending forecast to jump—good news for Ecuador’s inbound travel prospects as “coolcation” demand grows. Trade and tariffs in the region: At Quito’s Business Future of the Americas, AMCHAM Trinidad & Tobago pressed a senior US official to review tariffs hitting petrochemical exports that feed US agriculture—another reminder that Ecuador-linked supply chains can feel US policy shifts. Peru election risk premium: Peru’s runoff is dominated by crime and instability, with markets watching whether a Fujimori or Sanchez win reshapes the region’s rightward political shift. Ecuador port disruption: A fire in Manta’s artisanal fishing area burned at least 25 boats and left two people seriously injured, with authorities pointing to an accident during welding work.

Port Fire in Manta: Ecuador’s Pacific fishing hub Manta saw a major blaze in the artisanal dock area, burning at least 25 boats and leaving two people with severe burns; authorities say early indications point to an accident during welding, not an attack. Trade Diplomacy in Quito: At the Business Future of the Americas conference in Quito, AMCHAM T&T CEO Nirad Tewarie pressed a senior U.S. official over tariffs affecting Trinidad and Tobago’s petrochemical exports used in U.S. agriculture, seeking a review while stressing the bilateral relationship. Ecuador in World Cup Spotlight: FIFA World Cup build-up continues to pull Ecuador into the business-and-tourism conversation, with Quito highlighted as a “coolcation” destination and Ecuador tied to Group E matchups that include Germany and Curaçao. El Niño Watch: A new El Niño outlook is raising drought and heat concerns across the region, with Asia flagged as especially exposed—an issue that can ripple into food, power, and water planning for economies that trade and import.

Ecuador Security Watch: A new analysis highlights how Ecuador’s criminal landscape is fragmenting and diversifying amid the Daniel Noboa administration’s military pressure, with the number of active groups rising sharply and violence spreading across more localities. Ecuador Crime Update: Prosecutors report eight bodies found in jute sacks abandoned along the Jujan–Babahoyo road in Los Ríos, with investigators linking the case to missing people reported in Guayas. Ecuador & Tourism: Travel And Tour World’s 2026 “coolcation” ranking puts Quito among the top cooler-weather destinations in the Americas, reflecting growing demand for heat-avoidance travel. World Cup Business for Ecuador: Philadelphia’s World Cup schedule includes Ecuador’s Group E opener vs Côte d’Ivoire at Lincoln Financial Field on June 14, a reminder of the tournament’s spillover into travel, hospitality, and media demand. Regional Context: The U.S. and a Latin America bloc condemned alleged drug-funded efforts to destabilize Bolivia, underscoring how security and politics are increasingly tied to economic risk across the region.

Dollarization at street level: A new report explains how collapsing local currencies push people toward the US dollar as trust in the state erodes, starting with savings and spreading to pricing and everyday payments—an issue that matters for Ecuador’s own dollarized economy and consumer confidence. US forced-labor tariffs loom for Ecuador: The U.S. Trade Representative proposed Section 301 duties tied to forced-labor enforcement, explicitly listing Ecuador among economies facing a 10% tariff rate (subject to comments and hearings), raising fresh trade-cost questions for Ecuadorian exporters. Ecuador–US crypto payments angle: Oobit says USDT dominates stablecoin transaction volumes across Latam, with Ecuador effectively at ~100% share—highlighting how dollar-linked digital payments are shaping local commerce. Blue economy and jobs: A World Bank-linked piece spotlights Ecuador’s coastal “blue economy” and how women lead across fishing, processing, marketing, and sustainability in El Oro. Regional security and business risk: The US “Shield of the Americas” bloc condemned unrest in Bolivia, warning about disruptions to food and medicine deliveries—another reminder that instability can quickly spill into investment and supply chains.

Ecuador State Reshuffle: President Daniel Noboa announced a second cabinet reorganization in under a year, merging eight ministries and secretariats into three new portfolios and cutting the number of ministries from 14 to 10, aiming to improve state efficiency. US Forced-Labour Tariffs: The U.S. proposed Section 301 duties of up to 12.5% on imports from 60 countries over forced-labour enforcement gaps; Ecuador is named among markets facing a 10% penalty where rules exist but are not applied effectively—raising compliance and supply-chain cost concerns for regional exporters. Ecuador Arbitration Watch: Casino investors filed a second ICSID claim against Ecuador after an earlier treaty case was dismissed, keeping investor-state disputes in focus for the country’s business climate. Ecuador–Colombia Trade Diplomacy: Coverage notes Ecuador and Colombia moving to end their tariff fight, with the broader regional push for alternative trade partners also highlighted. World Cup Business Buzz: Ecuador’s World Cup presence shows up in Group E previews and broader host-market coverage as the tournament approaches June 11.

US Forced-Labor Tariffs: The U.S. Trade Representative proposed Section 301 tariffs on 60 economies after finding failures to ban or enforce imports made with forced labor, with Ecuador included among the countries facing a 10% or 12.5% duty tier depending on its legal setup. Ecuador Security Watch: A new analysis says Ecuador’s criminal landscape is fragmenting fast under the Noboa administration’s security push, with more armed groups and localized violence rising across provinces. Ecuador-Linked Drug Case: Ecuadorian-Canadian Walter Alcivar was sentenced in Australia to three years without parole after being caught importing cocaine concealed in underpants at Sydney Airport. Trade & Oil Context for the Region: South America’s oil export boom is accelerating as Brazil and Guyana ramp up shipments, while Venezuela’s output rebounds—reshaping supply for global buyers. Aviation Incident With Ecuador Link: The FAA is investigating a near-collision involving a JetBlue flight approaching from Guayaquil, Ecuador, near Fort Lauderdale. World Cup in Ecuador’s Orbit: Ecuador’s Group E opener in Philadelphia is set for June 14 vs. Côte d’Ivoire, highlighting how the tournament is driving regional business activity and travel demand.

US Forced-Labor Tariffs: The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed new Section 301 duties of 10%–12.5% on imports from 60 economies, arguing they failed to block forced-labor goods—an approach that could raise prices across supply chains. Ecuador Angle: Ecuador is explicitly named among the affected countries in the forced-labor tariff list, putting local exporters and importers on alert as the proposal moves through consultation and hearings. Diplomacy & Trade: Peru and Ecuador reaffirmed their commitment to fight organized crime and to keep working through binational mechanisms covering security, trade, investment, tourism, border infrastructure, and environmental and mining cooperation. Ecuador–Colombia Commerce: Ecuador’s tariff rollback on Colombian goods continues to shape the regional trade picture after the earlier tariff dispute. Weather Watch for Business: NASA data from the Sentinel-6 satellite shows a warm Pacific “Kelvin wave” moving toward South America, signaling an El Niño likely to follow—raising stakes for agriculture, water, and logistics. World Cup Business Pulse: FIFA’s expanded 48-team World Cup schedule is now set, with Ecuador’s match listed in the North America run-up and major fan-demand spillovers expected for travel and hospitality.

US Tariff Shock for Ecuador: The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed new Section 301 duties tied to forced-labor enforcement failures, with Ecuador listed among countries facing a 10% additional tariff (alongside Canada, Mexico, the EU, Indonesia, Pakistan). The move is not final, with public comments due by July 6 and hearings set for July 7, and it’s already drawing pushback from trading partners that say the findings are disputed and could disrupt supply chains. Trade Policy Fallout: Washington says the tariffs are meant to rebuild a broader tariff regime after earlier emergency measures were struck down in U.S. courts, while business groups warn the approach adds compliance confusion. Ecuador in the Crosshairs: The proposal places Ecuador directly in the U.S. forced-labor tariff framework, even as Ecuador’s broader regional trade environment remains sensitive to U.S. legal and policy shifts. World Cup Business Angle: Separate coverage highlights Ecuador’s Group E World Cup campaign, with Ecuador set to play Ivory Coast in Philadelphia—an event that can affect travel, hospitality, and local commerce.

Trade Policy Shock: The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed new Section 301 tariffs of 10% (Canada, Ecuador, EU, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan and others) and 12.5% (China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and more) after finding 60 economies failed to effectively block imports made with forced labor—an approach trading partners say is unfair and will disrupt supply chains. Ecuador Angle: Ecuador is explicitly named among countries facing the 10% proposal, putting fresh pressure on exporters and importers tied to U.S. demand. Aviation Safety: The FAA is investigating a close call involving a JetBlue flight from Ecuador near Fort Lauderdale, highlighting ongoing air-traffic controller strain. World Cup Economy & Tourism: With the 2026 tournament starting June 11 across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, coverage focuses on costs and fan logistics, including Philadelphia match planning and watch-party culture—useful for Ecuador-linked travel and trade in services.

Trade Policy Shock: The US Trade Representative has proposed new Section 301 duties of 10% or 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, citing failures to effectively ban goods made with forced labour—Ecuador is named among the 10% group, alongside Canada, the EU, Mexico, Pakistan and others. Ecuador-Colombia Business Fallout: As Ecuador lifted tariffs on Colombian goods effective June 1, Colombia’s foreign trade association Analdex urged full normalization of trade, trying to separate the economic agenda from political controversy tied to the tariff decision. Commodities & Corruption Watch: Geneva-based trader Gunvor was searched by federal investigators in a corruption probe linked to an opaque Gabon oil contract; Switzerland has already convicted Gunvor twice, including in Ecuador. Logistics & Security: Hungary seized a record 522 kg of cocaine hidden in a banana shipment from Ecuador, routed via Germany, underscoring how trade flows can be exploited. World Cup Economy & Ecuador Visibility: Philadelphia detailed World Cup security and transit upgrades for six matches, including Côte d’Ivoire vs Ecuador on June 14—while Ecuador’s presence also shows up in broader regional tourism growth forecasts.

Ecuador–Colombia Business & Trade: Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa government is again in the spotlight as the tariff dispute with Colombia continues to ripple into politics, with reports tying Quito’s tariff moves to accusations of electoral interference. Regional Politics & Risk: Colombia’s presidential race is tightening after far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella topped the first round and will face Iván Cepeda in a June 21 runoff, raising uncertainty for investors watching security, trade, and policy direction. Ecuador in Global Supply Chains: Hungary seized a record 522 kg of cocaine hidden in banana shipments traced back to Ecuador, underscoring how Ecuadorian exports can be pulled into international enforcement and reputational risk. Health Tech in Ecuador: C2N Diagnostics and SouthGenetics expanded access to blood tests for Alzheimer’s amyloid pathology across Latin America, including Ecuador, as demand grows with aging populations and limited specialist capacity. Energy & Infrastructure Finance: Azerbaijan is reported to be eyeing financing for Ecuador’s energy and infrastructure projects, a potential boost for capital inflows and procurement pipelines. Corporate Legal Watch: Chevron named Scott Keller as general counsel as part of its succession plan, a reminder of how major oil firms are reshaping leadership ahead of major legal and regulatory cycles.

Colombia-Ecuador Trade Truce: Ecuador has formally removed the customs security fee and eliminated the tariffs it imposed on Colombian goods, ending a months-long tariff fight that hit medicines, cosmetics, plastics and rubber and squeezed cross-border imports. Colombia Runoff Politics: Colombia’s far-right “El Tigre” Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round with 43.7% and will face leftist senator Iván Cepeda on June 21, as Petro disputed preliminary results and raised concerns about electoral irregularities. Workers’ Rights Watch: The ITUC’s 2026 Global Rights Index added Ecuador to the worst category for workers’ rights, alongside Argentina and Panama, citing shrinking guarantees and rising repression. Health & Diagnostics Deal: C2N Diagnostics and SouthGenetics expanded access to blood tests for Alzheimer’s amyloid pathology, with initial rollout planned across Ecuador and other regional markets. Local Business Growth in Cuenca: Cuenca’s Mall del Alto opened with about 250 spaces and is drawing both international franchises and homegrown food brands, giving local entrepreneurs a bigger customer base. Ecuador in the Global Talent Pipeline: Korea’s language program is set to enter Colombian classrooms, highlighting growing regional demand for new skills and education partnerships.

Ecuador–Colombia Trade Reset: Ecuador’s customs authority has abolished the 100% tariff on Colombian goods effective June 1, cutting the security surcharge to zero after talks involving President Daniel Noboa and presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, aiming to restart legal trade while tightening joint action against illicit economies. Labor Rights Watch: The ITUC’s 2026 Global Rights Index says repression of workers’ rights is worsening globally, with Ecuador newly listed among the worst performers and the report flagging widespread violations of the right to strike and collective bargaining. Private Education Pressure: Ecuador’s Education Ministry reports private school enrollment has fallen 24% since 2018, citing family financial strain and a declining birth rate. Security and Justice: Police say they’ve identified two suspects still at large after a deadly Chordeleg jewelry store robbery, while authorities criticized the “lynch mob” that killed two captured suspects. World Cup Business Pulse: With Ecuador in Group E, the tournament’s June kickoff roster deadline is today, and Ecuador’s matches (including vs Curacao) are set to draw regional attention as fans plan travel and spending across host cities.

Ecuador–Colombia Trade Reset: Ecuador’s customs authority has ordered the end of the 100% tariff on Colombian goods starting June 1, ending a months-long trade dispute tied to border security and drug-fighting demands. Diplomatic Fallout: Colombia rejected Ecuador’s framing of the tariff cut as political goodwill, accusing Quito of “deliberate interference” in Colombia’s presidential election after Noboa discussed tariff removal with far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella. Election Watch (Colombia): De la Espriella won the first round and will face Petro ally Iván Cepeda in a June 21 runoff, with violence and cartel policy at the center of the campaign. Cross-Border Crime Link: A major cocaine case in the Pacific involving Ecuadorian arrests was tied to Colombia’s Clan del Golfo, underscoring the region’s illicit trafficking networks. Business & Travel Angle: New York/New Jersey is gearing up for World Cup 2026 matches at MetLife, with free fan events and small-business activations planned across the metro area. Ecuador Economy/Industry: Ecuador is also set to provide USD 10.5 million to fishers to offset spiking fuel costs.